Industry insiders believe that the impact of the epidemic on the industry is painful, but things always have two sides.
Grain pigs are safe in the world. China's pork consumption accounts for 60% of meat consumption all year round. At the same time, China's pig raising and pork consumption both account for about half of the world's total. Based on such national conditions, China attaches great importance to the pig industry.
This year is the closing year of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Among them, the National Pig Production Development Plan (2016-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the "Pig Plan") is the first pig production development plan since the founding of New China and is the guiding document for pig production development during the 13th Five-Year Plan.
However, the outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018 and the current new crown pneumonia epidemic have greatly affected China's pig industry. How to accomplish a series of goals mentioned in "pig planning" makes the industry fall into thinking.
However, industry insiders believe that the impact of the epidemic on the industry is painful, but things always have two sides. For example, the already obvious trend of large-scale farming was affected by non-pestilence situation. Now a large number of small and medium-sized farmers have withdrawn and the recovery of production capacity of large farming groups has accelerated.
The Central and Local Authorities Concentrate on Policies to Stabilize Pig Production
Although the "Pig Plan" suggests "focusing on preventing the introduction of African swine fever and other exotic animal diseases", the epidemic situation is surging and the whole industry is caught off guard. At the same time, because the pig industry is related to people's livelihood, it has also triggered a series of impacts. However, in order to maintain stable production and supply, the central government and the local government have issued intensive policies to stabilize pig production.
At the executive meeting of the State Council held on August 21, 2019, five measures were put forward, including comprehensively implementing policies to resume pig production, abolishing the ban and restriction on pig raising beyond laws and regulations, developing scale breeding, supporting farmers to raise pigs, strengthening the construction of animal epidemic prevention system, and ensuring pork supply.
At the end of 2019, the "Three-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Recovery and Development of Pig Production" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") formulated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs clearly stated that "pig production should be pursued as well as grain production, with stable and stable pig production as the key task of agricultural work, and efforts should be made to speed up the recovery of pig production."
At present, the prices of pigs, sows and piglets are all at a record high, with a price of 2,500 yuan per piglet in Guangdong and Guangxi, which has already exceeded the price of a pig before the epidemic. Wen's group, the largest pig industry in the country in terms of annual output, even started a piglet snatch war. There are also large listed pig raising companies, which, stimulated by high pig prices, are expanding against the trend and making a lot of money.
It can be said that unlike the previous pig cycle, this time the pig is really on the wind. In addition, after a year and a half of non-epidemic situation, the data of the whole industry gradually changed from abnormal to normal.
From this, we can look at the development goals of the pig industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan clearly set out in the "Pig Plan". In terms of production, by 2020, pork production will reach 57.6 million tons, the proportion of large-scale breeding with more than 500 heads on the market will reach 52%, and the proportion of slaughter by large-scale enterprises will reach 75%. In terms of efficiency, the annual number of marketable pigs (PSY) provided by a sow in a large-scale farm reached 19, and the feed conversion rate for fattening pigs was 2.7: 1. In terms of ecology, the comprehensive utilization rate of excrement is more than 75%.
Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection and Purchase Network, told First Financial and Economic Reporters that due to the resumption of demand for pig production capacity, the production capacity of sows that can reproduce will begin to pick up gradually in the third quarter of 2019. The number of domestic large pigs available for slaughter will remain at a low level in the first three quarters of this year. It is expected that the number of large pigs available for slaughter will increase significantly in the middle and late fourth quarter and the recovery of production capacity will accelerate. However, considering the whole year, pork production will remain low in 2020, even slightly below 40 million tons.
He said that the sudden situation caused by the epidemic may make the production target impossible. However, judging from other goals, it has already been achieved. For example, the current slaughter scale has reached about 80%, which is higher than the target. Large-scale breeding enterprises have developed rapidly and their breeding level has improved. PSY of sows in some large-scale breeding enterprises has reached 22-23. The number of pigs that can be listed annually has reached 21-22. The average PSY of large-scale farmers has reached 20-21. The number of pigs that can be listed annually has reached about 19.5, which is higher than the target value. As for the ratio of feed to meat in the fattening stage, it has reached about 2.6~2.7 in China.
At the same time, the "Pig Plan" sets a target of "the top 10 pig-raising enterprises account for 3% of the country's pig market". Because the pig enterprises are expanding against the trend, the top 10 pig-raising enterprises already account for 10% of the country's pig market. The industry predicts that the number of live pigs in the top 10 breeding enterprises will reach 60 million, accounting for 12% of the country's total, during the recovery period of 2020. By 2021, there will be two breeding groups in China with more than 20 million slaughter heads, and there will be 3-4 breeding groups with more than 10 million slaughter heads. In order to get into the top 10, the threshold for annual slaughter of live pigs has been raised to 5 million.
Adjustment of Regional Distribution under Impact of Epidemic Situation
Considering environmental carrying capacity, resource endowment, consumption preference, slaughter and processing and other factors, and giving full play to regional comparative advantages, Pig Planning proposes to promote coordinated development of pig production in key development areas, restricted development areas, potential growth areas and moderate development areas.
However, the outbreak has disrupted this rhythm. According to the "Pig Plan", the output of 500 pigs transferred from big counties accounts for more than 70% of the country's total output. Also due to the epidemic situation, many of the pigs transferred from big counties in the past have become pig-deficient counties.
Therefore, the above-mentioned "Plan" issued at the end of 2019 puts forward production recovery targets that are in line with the actual situation after the outbreak of the epidemic, including ensuring that the production capacity will basically return to the level close to the perennial level by the end of 2020 and return to normal by 2021. For the first time, the general requirement of balanced production and marketing has been put forward. Northeast, Huang Huai Hai, and Central South regions are areas for pig and product transfer. They should contribute to the overall situation of stable production and supply in the country and realize stable production and increase production. Southeast coastal areas are the main selling areas, and mega-cities such as Beijing and Shanghai should achieve and maintain a self-sufficiency rate of about 70%. Southwest, northwest and other regions are areas of balanced production and marketing, so it is necessary to ensure basic self-sufficiency.
The layout design of pig breeding in the "Pig Planning" is suitable for the development of domestic pig breeding industry in normal years. However, the outbreak of the epidemic has caused the transportation of live pigs to be blocked. It is easy to find that pigs in the production areas cannot be sold and the price is low. Pork supply in the selling areas is tight, prices are soaring, and profits of producers and consumers are both damaged.
Lin Guofa said that the active development of pig slaughtering, warehousing, storage and cold chain transportation in the production areas is conducive to the retention of employment, slaughter and processing and other taxes in the production areas, and is conducive to economic development. In the future, it is still necessary to adhere to the regional layout of pig breeding. However, while developing pig breeding, it is necessary to extend the industrial chain by supporting slaughtering, processing, etc. to alleviate the impact of the interruption of live pig transportation on the production and marketing areas.
In terms of international competition, in the early period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, China's pig comprehensive competitiveness was obviously lower than that of developed countries, but the situation was also improving.
There are differences in the cost of pig breeding at home and abroad, which are mainly manifested in two aspects: breeding technology and the price of feed raw materials. However, in the past five years, China's pig breeding technology has continuously improved. For example, with the increase in the scale of breeding and scientific breeding, the number of live pigs managed by a single breeding worker has also greatly increased. The average number of live pigs managed by a single worker in a single batch in some standardized farms amounts to about 1,500 live pigs, which can be managed by 3,000 to 4,000 live pigs per year, effectively reducing labor costs. Domestic aquaculture technology and average production efficiency are accelerating to catch up with the world's advanced level.
However, the feed raw materials, which account for about 60% of the domestic pig breeding cost, are about twice as expensive as those of major grain and oil producing countries such as Brazil and the United States due to the low production efficiency of domestic land and grain and oil planting. This has resulted in obvious price differences at home and abroad.
However, in Wang Zhong's view, it is unrealistic for our country to fully reach the cost of European and American countries. It lies not only in technical and management issues, but also in resource endowments. What China needs to do is to narrow the technological gap, not simply compare absolute costs.
The "Pig Plan" also specifically proposes the implementation of the "internet plus Pig" development strategy and has made progress in the past five years. Wang Zhong, chief consultant officer of Mouyi Consulting and chairman of Sino-Canada Rongda Investment Company, told First Financial and Economic Reporters that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, some embryonic forms of industrial Internet began to emerge, mainly because some enterprises saw the business opportunities of industrial Internet brought by AI intelligent technology and 5G infrastructure.
At present, the pig farms of large-scale breeding groups have realized real-time monitoring of the health, feed intake, temperature, ammonia concentration and other indicators of pig farms through intelligent data acquisition terminals. If the disease occurs, it can be analyzed through big data and treated in time to reduce the aggravation or spread of the disease and reduce the impact of personnel patrol on pig rest and other stress reactions. Moreover, through systematic analysis of a large number of production data, the optimal feeding and management methods can be found to reduce the average feed consumption and realize the reduction of feed cost.